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2022-07-27
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[white horse Research Report] Dongfang cable: the sea breeze is booming, the submarine cable order explosion helps the performance transition

[white horse Research Report] Dongfang cable: the sea breeze is booming, the submarine cable order explosion helps the performance transition

- this cycle goes back and forth to achieve the purpose of cooling 26 18:19 source://

original title: [white horse Research Report] Dongfang cable: the sea breeze is booming, The explosion of submarine cable orders has helped turn the performance.

offshore wind power has obvious advantages, and the technology has gradually matured. It has entered a period of high-speed development.

under the background of energy structure transformation, offshore wind power has become the preferred choice for coastal cities to optimize the energy structure by virtue of its proximity to the load center, small intermittent output volatility and abundant reserves. In 2008, the first offshore wind power project was approved. Especially since the policy support for 14 years, the offshore wind power generation and transmission technology has developed rapidly and become more mature. At present, the offshore wind power presents the development trend of "one batch of these types of corn processing plants" in the region, which promotes the full utilization time to rise and the project investment cost to decline, Although the future bidding will reduce the electricity price, the range should be controllable, and the medium and long-term offshore wind power projects are expected to maintain an IRR of more than 8%. In 2017, China's offshore wind power installed capacity reached 2.79gw, a year-on-year increase of 71%. According to Bloomberg's prediction, the installed capacity will exceed 8.5gw in 2020, and it is expected that the installed capacity will even reach 10GW according to industry research

started from the forward-looking layout of submarine cable business in 2005. In 2018, Dongfang cable ushered in a performance transition.

submarine cable accounted for about 8~10% of offshore wind power investment. Benefiting from the expansion of offshore wind power, the scale of submarine cable installed capacity market exceeded 2billion in 2017 and is expected to exceed 4billion in 2020. Since 2005, Dongfang cable has started to build submarine cable business, with solid technical reserves and sufficient capacity layout. At present, the company has the largest number of relevant patents in the field of submarine cables in China, with a market share of more than 40%. It is one of the few domestic enterprises with mature 500kV submarine cable manufacturing technology. It has delivered long-distance umbilical cables to break the international monopoly. 18h1's submarine cable business achieved a revenue of 457million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 339%, which has become a new driving force for the company's performance. It is estimated that the total revenue of submarine cable products in 18 years will reach about 1billion yuan. With the laying of "Dongfang offshore engineering", the submarine cable industry chain of production manufacturing + installation, operation and maintenance built by the company has been formed. 8. Calibration has helped the company break the steady state and reach a new high

power cables are intensively developed in the high-voltage field, and the growth of intelligent cables is expected.

the power cable market is stabilizing, and the uneven structural capacity opens up the growth space of the high-voltage cable market. The company got rid of the low-pressure price competition and focused on the high-pressure field with higher capital and technical barriers. In 2017, the revenue increased by 26%. The downstream rail transit of smart cable has good development potential, and there are signs of restart and recovery of nuclear power. In 2017, the company's smart cable achieved a revenue of 150million, with a growth rate of 77%. It is expected to maintain rapid development in the next three years under the strong recovery of the downstream

profit forecast and investment suggestions

the company is a leading submarine cable company, and its current market share has reached more than 40%. The offshore wind power industry is clearly booming. In view of the company's solid accumulation of technical experience in submarine cable business and excellent R & D and management capabilities, the annual net profits were 165million, 283million and 387million respectively, with a compound growth of 98% in three years. With reference to the prosperity of the scenery industry in 2017, the target valuations of the core companies are all around 20x, giving the company a target price of 11.2 yuan, corresponding to the 20x valuation in 2019. The first coverage gives a buy rating

risk tips

offshore wind power subsidies decline; There are uncertainties in the technological progress and cost reduction of offshore wind power; Upstream copper price fluctuation; The non-public offering and fund-raising projects shall be suspended; The fixed increase solution 1 is generally 20%, 40%, 60%, 80%, 100% of the calibrated Zui large load and zero point prohibition risk

source: Guojin securities

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