The hottest Huang Shaodong looks at the developmen

2022-08-06
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Huang Shaodong: from an economic point of view, the development of the civil coating industry in the west is generally gradual, while China's development is different. It is a leap from a self-sufficient small-scale peasant economy to a planned economy, and then to an open market economy. The economic development of the West in the past 300 years has experienced four stages: emphasizing commerce, free competition, state intervention and improving the combination of state intervention and market economy, while China has experienced these four stages in the process of economic development in the past 30 years. Therefore, various economic theories that have appeared in the process of western economic development are prevalent in all walks of life in China, and it seems that they can find a place to play - now China's industries and enterprises are not pursuing satisfaction, but emphasizing suitability for survival

I. supply and demand: maturing

after nearly 20 years of development, the industry is gradually maturing. Although the scale of production and sales of major products has still expanded, the growth rate has slowed down significantly. Great changes have taken place in the market and the supply and demand pattern. The seller's market has been completely transformed into the buyer's market, and the market competition is becoming more and more fierce. The main characteristics of the transformation of these industries from growth to maturity, such as slowing growth, excess production capacity and declining corporate profits, all appeared three to five years ago

the reason why the industry is mature is not only the inevitable trend that the basic needs of consumers are met, but also the result of the rapid growth of industry investment. Once the basic needs are effectively met, the balance of supply and demand will inevitably be broken, and the growth of traditional products will be limited

from the perspective of supply, the technology basically tends to be mature, which belongs to the typical processing nature of incoming materials. The easy availability of technology and abundant resources of raw materials and equipment make the industry entry barriers low. Driven by the huge market demand and stimulated by the relatively low barriers to entry, a large number of funds poured into the industry, the production capacity of the industry expanded rapidly, and the intersection of product prices and consumption capacity gradually reached the maximum value, which basically met the urgent needs of consumers for basic product needs and promoted the rapid growth of the industry. The whole 1990s was an era of "explosive" growth of the industry, which made the urban market complete the popularization of civil coating products as soon as possible

from the perspective of demand, the urban-rural dual structure is the basic pattern of China's market. Due to the different stages of urban and rural consumption - the realization of rural market demand lags behind to some extent, the consumption of civil coatings also shows a "dual" differentiation. The urban market with renewal as the main theme and the rural market with popularization as the main melody will form a "dual" pattern of China's civil coatings consumption in the near future. The potential demand of the rural coating market is very high. However, due to the slowdown in the income growth of rural residents in recent years, it is expected that it will be difficult to form a large-scale market in the short term. In addition, even though the rural market has great potential, the geographical characteristics and product positioning of this market determine its low technical content and added value. Therefore, it is impossible for enterprises to obtain ideal high profits from the rural market

II. Competition: structural optimization

economics tells us that all participants in the market economy are equal. To obtain limited resources, markets and opportunities, we must participate in competition and prove that we are better than others. The competitive process is the selection process of industry optimization. The "labor" of economic distribution according to work is not the "labor" you actually pay for labor consumption, but the "labor" of "social necessary labor". The Marxist "social necessary labor" is not distributed according to the physiological contribution of each person, but according to the degree of recognition of your labor. You can't do it or act recklessly. Even if you "sweat hard", the labor you pay may be invalid. Your products are difficult to sell, and your brand can't be recognized by the market

looking back at the early stage of the industry development, the integration and competition between the introduction, digestion and absorption of foreign technologies, independent research and development and continuous cost reduction have created today's prosperous civil coating industry. The biggest feature of the market economy is that all conditions are converted into a single currency unit in the transaction process. Although the scale of "talking with money" and "talking with price" in the early stage of the industry is somewhat "limited" today, it leads the industry to continuously develop new products and produce more products with high quality and reasonable prices, which is positive for the development of the industry

however, with the development of industrial competition, structural problems begin to emerge gradually. What is structure? It refers to what parts of a thing are composed of and what proportion relationship between these parts not only realizes the improvement of battery energy density, but also affects each other in what way. At ordinary times, we jokingly say that "men and women work together without being tired". This principle is called "reasonable element combination" in economics. It is a "structural benefit" aimed at improving operation efficiency, which is embodied in organizational structure, human structure, product structure, channel structure, customer structure, enterprise operation structure and the overall competition structure of the industry

in the application of structure, there are not only "systematization" but also "optimization" principles. For example, the appropriate "optimization" of products may be due to the lack of competitiveness or non-compliance with the demand trend of some products; Second, it is possible that some quality of some products is excessive, and no quality does not need cost. That is to say, we should evaluate the product and remove the excess parts or functions. The so-called "optimization" is actually to remove the excess or non critical parts according to the "demand", so as to avoid consumers paying for the "unnecessary" parts. First, it can improve the operation efficiency and try to avoid invalid labor and waste of resources; Second, the competitiveness of enterprises will not lead to high prices due to excessive quality. Frankly speaking, in the process of product and brand building, the industry actually has too many "invalid labor" that does not conform to the "optimization" principle, and the most direct embodiment is "homogenization"

from the perspective of the overall competitive structure of the industry, although the pattern has been very clear, the development of the industry has not yet entered the monopoly stage, and we all need to build or strengthen our core advantages through continuous structural optimization

III. margin: gradually slowing down

a writer told a story about a young man eating steamed bread. When he ate the fifth, he said he was full. He also said that if you eat the fifth at the beginning, you don't have to eat the first four. This writer may not know that the fifth steamed bread in economics is "marginal steamed bread". If he knows marginal analysis, he can well explain that young man's "ridiculous". According to the thinking mode of economics, everything is interrelated, all things are interdependent and limited by other things, not "either or"

from the perspective of industry development, of course, the growth mode in the past 20 years has largely relied on technological progress, but in the past 10 years, it has increasingly relied on the input of a large number of cheap resources. At present, the price of labor resources is rising, and the price of low resources is also rising. The marginal benefit curve of labor productivity began to decelerate, and the per capita productivity did not increase significantly

from the perspective of marketing, channel promotion has always been a sharp weapon to promote the rapid development of the industry. However, after the rapid expansion in the past few years, the major enterprises in the industry have preliminarily completed the channel layout, and relying on the channel expansion to achieve rapid growth has entered the bottleneck. The development of the marketing team and system, as the main business expansion body of the enterprise, has also entered a bottleneck period, which has also led to the development level of the channel system of the main enterprises in the fifth theme

in addition, the new system has also expanded its own experimental function. According to economics, institution is the most important factor determining growth. Even without the increase of capital and labor, the improvement of the system will also promote the increase of output level, because a reasonable system can promote division of labor and cooperation, and provide an incentive. However, for the civil coating industry which has experienced a rapid development stage, the system construction has not been fundamentally changed

based on the above factors, the marginal capacity of the industry will naturally decrease without major changes in the overall market environment

sihainan will integrate port resources and transform: follow the trend

the development of all walks of life in China is often hot and cold; Before overheating, it is often accompanied by competition for resources and significant upward pressure on prices; In the period of rapid cooling down, private enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises often suffer great impact. At present, China's enterprise structure and corresponding profit contribution also show very significant characteristics. First, the upstream enterprises (often in a monopoly position) concentrate a considerable proportion of profits, and second, the middle and downstream enterprises face very fierce and homogeneous competition. For the civil coating industry, the above characteristics are more obvious, which forces the industry to make adjustments and improvements and change the development mode

in terms of external environment, even without the financial crisis of previous years, the past extensive production mode regardless of environmental and energy costs and the mode of mainly relying on investment growth are obviously contrary to sustainable development. From the perspective of the industry's own development, entering the mature stage indicates that the market is gradually becoming saturated, and overcapacity, intensified competition and declining profitability will become an economic norm. It is believed that the industry's profits will enter a further deterioration period in the next period of time. Therefore, enterprises in the industry must comply with this new situation and enhance their understanding of sustainable development - change the growth mode, eliminate backward production capacity, change the direction of investment, and improve the contribution of science and technology to production and operation. However, transformation is also a very difficult process, because it means that a large number of low value-added enterprises withdraw from the market - this process may only be the first stage of industrial upgrading, but only freeing up some resources; In the second stage, industry and industry integration are often required to improve cash flow and management level; The third stage is the improvement of self pricing ability, technological progress and management innovation after integration

objectively speaking, the civil coating industry has experienced an impetuous medium and long-term expansion. In addition, the industry itself has not developed for a long time. Most enterprises have not faced the pressure of transformation, and lack experience in this regard. Therefore, in this round of transformation from relying on resource input to technological progress, it is natural for industry enterprises to constantly try and make mistakes - just like the car needs to slow down when turning, just as the conversion of a new engine needs to be run in. It is also at this difficult time that excellent enterprises often emerge - just as after forest fires, it is easier for fertile land to grow towering trees

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